If you’ve been watching the market here in Tampa Bay, you’ve probably noticed some shifts already in 2025. So what’s coming next? Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or both, here’s what you need to know about home prices, mortgage rates, and what it all means for your move.
Are Home Prices Going to Drop?
A lot of buyers are holding out, hoping for prices to fall. And yes, some headlines are reporting slight dips in certain areas. But here’s the truth:
👉 Home price growth is slowing, not crashing.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices.”
Still, the average of 8 leading national forecasts shows home prices are expected to rise 1.5% to 2% this year. And in hot Florida markets like Wesley Chapel, New Tampa, Lutz, and Land O’ Lakes, we’re seeing some slight softening in certain price points—but nothing dramatic.
Even in areas seeing small declines, the average drop is just around -3.5%. That’s nothing like 2008’s nearly 20% drop. And let’s not forget—home values are still up 55% nationwide compared to five years ago.
Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
Here’s the most common phrase I hear as a REALTOR®:
“We’re just going to wait for rates to drop.”
But that might not be the smartest move. According to Yahoo Finance:
“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting.”
Most forecasts show rates staying in the mid-6% range through the end of the year—very similar to what we’re seeing right now.
Waiting on a big dip could mean missing out on homes that actually fit your lifestyle or goals today. I’ve seen buyers win big simply because they stayed focused on what they needed, not what the headlines were saying.
What Buyers and Sellers in Tampa Bay Should Do Now
I’m Whitney Lohr, a top REALTOR® in the Tampa Bay area and team leader of Florida Living Group at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. I specialize in helping sellers and new construction buyers in Hunter’s Green, Arbor Greene, Tampa Palms, Seven Oaks, and throughout Wesley Chapel, Lutz, and Temple Terrace.
Here’s my advice:
✔ Don’t wait for a “perfect” time. There’s no magic market. What matters most is your personal situation and having the right strategy.
✔ If you’re buying: Let’s talk about ways to make your offer strong and how to take advantage of today’s inventory.
✔If you’re selling: Homes in Tampa Bay are still moving—but only if they’re in great condition and priced right. I’ll help you prep, position, and price it to stand out in this market.
✔ If you’re doing both: I’ve helped many clients sell and buy in the same market. Timing matters, and I’ll guide you through it.
Bottom Line
We’re not heading for a meltdown. We’re in a more balanced market. Prices are still rising—just slower—and rates aren’t expected to shift dramatically. The key is to stop guessing and start planning.
Let’s chat about what’s happening right here in Tampa Bay and how to build a smart plan that works for you.
📲 Call or text me anytime at 813-394-0759, or visit floridalivinggroup.net to get started.